基于传递函数模型的油田产油量预测方法
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

王滨,女,高级工程师,硕士,从事油气田开发及中长远开发规划工作。联系电话:(0546)8717970,E-mail:wangbin265.slyt@sinopec.com。

通讯作者:

基金项目:

国家科技重大专项“胜利油田特高含水期提高采收率技术”(2011ZX05011-002)


Oilfield output prediction method based on transfer function model
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    针对油田产油量预测方法无法考虑因素动态关系的局限性,首次应用时间序列传递函数模型建立了考虑因素动态关系的多因素油田产油量预测模型。应用传递函数模型的原理并按照建模步骤,以胜利油区某油田新井产油量预测为例,说明了传递函数模型数据准备、模型识别、参数估计、诊断校验及预测过程。研究结果表明,该预测模型既能在繁杂因素中剔除无关因素的干扰,识别影响油田产油量预测的主控因素,又能考察变化非同步且具有滞后性的因素动态关系;拟合程度好,预测精度高达98.4%。

    Abstract:

    Dynamic relationship among factors have not been taken into consideration in the application of oilfield output prediction method. Time series transfer function method is firstly applied to build a multiple factor oilfield output prediction model considering dynamic relationship. Taking new wells output of one oilfield in Shengli Region for example, data preparation, model recognition, parameter estimation, diagnosis and checking and prediction process of transfer function model are illustrated according to its modeling work flow. The study result shows that this prediction model can remove irrelevant elements from multifarious factors and identify the main controlling factors on oilfield output prediction, and it can also observe the dynamic relationship of factors with non-synchronization and hysteresis. The precision is high and up to 98.4%.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

王滨,赵伟,计小宇,张以根,侯春华,颜子,邴绍献,彭国红.基于传递函数模型的油田产油量预测方法[J].油气地质与采收率,2014,21(5):77~80

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2015-06-05