Taking thin-bed heavy oil reservoir with edge-bottom water in Panyu oilfield as an example，water cut increase of the horizontal wells was classified into four types：open drowning type，rapid drowning type，rising ladder type and hillclimbing type. Influencing factors of the water cut rising type were analyzed according to the geological condition，fluid characteristic and production performance of the horizontal well. The effect sequence was given by the gray correlation method. Results indicate that the effect sequence is interlayer range＞oil viscosity＞distance between wellbore and water oil contact＞ratio of water layer thickness to overall thickness. The larger the interlayer range is and the smaller the oil viscosity is，the slower the water cut rises in single horizontal well；the smaller the distance between wellbore and water oil contact and the larger the ratio of water layer thickness to overall thickness，the faster the water cut rises in single horizontal well. The type of water cut rising is the result caused by the combination effect of drive patterns，oil viscosity，distance between wellbore and water oil contact and ratio of water layer thickness to overall thickness. Quantitative combination table of the influencing factors was given and can be used to predict production performance type of single horizontal well，to determine whether there is engineering problem and in historical-matching iterative modeling for the horizontal wells.