In 1945，ARPS proposed the theoretically significant decline rate and its differential form based on the statistics and analysis of the production decline curve. The exponential decline model，hyperbolic decline model，and harmonic decline model were first built，of which the hyperbolic decline model was the core of the Arps decline model. The exponential decline model has been widely used due to its simplicity and ease of operation. The application research shows that the empirical hyperbolic decline model is rarely used in practice because of its obvious uncertainty. The harmonic decline model simplified from the hyperbolic decline model has hardly been applied. At the same time，the Arps hyperbolic decline model with n=0.5 is the best choice through the comparison with the generic exponential decline model by Chen Yuanqian，which can be effectively used to predict the production rate and recoverable reserves of shale gas wells.