SEC剩余经济可采储量替代率与产量的关系及影响因素
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卢广钦,男,高级工程师,硕士,从事油气开发研究与技术管理工作。联系电话:(0546)8551819,E-mail:luguangqin.slyt@sinopec.com。

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中国石化2012年勘探先导项目“胜利油田SEC准则下储量评估参数确定方法研究”(2012-180)


Study on the relationship and influencing factors of replacement ratio and output on SEC remaining economic recoverable reserves
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    摘要:

    SEC剩余经济可采储量主要是按照SEC准则根据油气产量等的变化规律进行预测评估得到的,SEC剩余经济可采储量替代率与产量的关系是客观存在的,也是非常直接的。目前对2个指标及其关系的认识仍然存在一些误区,且其对企业的宏观指导方面还存在着不确定性。以胜利油区SEC储量评估为参考,从SEC剩余经济可采储量替代率和产量的相关定义、共性及个性影响因素、相互影响关系等方面着手,以宏观的思路和实例分析了两者的关系及其影响因素,并对替代率的阶段性变化规律进行了探讨。结果表明,SEC剩余经济可采储量替代率和产量从年度变化规律来看并不一致,但阶段变化趋势一致;其影响因素主要包括SEC剩余经济可采储量及其在当年的变化、产量构成、经济参数、评估条件和敏感性差异等。以此为基础,初步形成了储量评估分析的宏观框架,可作为储量评估分析体系的重要补充。

    Abstract:

    Remaining economic recoverable reserves are based on the gradual change law of production of oil and gas, and it is forecasted and estimated according to SEC criterion. It is closely related with the output and replacement ratio of remaining economic recoverable reserves. However, recently, some misunderstandings exist in respects of two indexes and their mutual relationships, and the management and direction to enterprise is still influenced by these uncertainties. Taking the SEC reserves of Shengli oilfield for reference,and considering the related definition of output and replacement ratio on remaining economic recoverable reserves, influencing factors on general character and personality, and based on the overall idea and field example, the mutual relationship and sensitive difference to influencing factors of the two indexes were analyzed. In the meantime, the gradual change law of replacement ratio was discussed. Research results manifest that: from the annual change law of view, it is inconsistent for the relationship between replacement ratio and output, but it is consistent in respect of its overall gradual change trend. Its influencing factors mainly include SEC remaining economic recoverable reserves and its changes in the same year, output components, economic factors, evaluation conductions and difference of sensitivity etc. Based on this, we form the maco-framework on reserves estimation, which can be used as an important replenishment in analysis system of reserves estimation.

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卢广钦. SEC剩余经济可采储量替代率与产量的关系及影响因素[J].油气地质与采收率,2013,20(3):60~64

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-08-01