剩余经济可采储量及储量价值影响因素敏感程度分析
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刘昌鸣(1983—),男,湖北仙桃人,工程师,硕士,从事油气储量评价研究。联系电话:13561037573,E-mail:liuchm912.slyt@sinopec.com。

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国家科技重大专项“特高含水后期油田延长经济寿命期开发技术”(2016ZX05011-001)。


Study on sensitivity of influencing factors of the remaining economic ecoverable reserves and reserve value
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    摘要:

    剩余经济可采储量是各上市油气公司的核心资产,其规模及价值反映公司的发展潜力,直接影响公司的折耗、利润和油气资产的保值、增值。以剩余经济可采储量及储量价值计算模型为基础,定量研究不同油价下初始产油量、递减率、油价、总操作成本等因素对剩余经济可采储量及储量价值的影响程度。研究结果表明:剩余经济可采储量及储量价值与评估油价和初始产油量呈线性正相关,与递减率和总操作成本呈线性负相关;不同油价下,剩余经济可采储量及储量价值对各因素变化的敏感程度不同。高油价下,剩余经济可采储量及储量价值受初始产油量和递减率的敏感程度较大;随着油价不断下降,油价和总操作成本对剩余经济可采储量及储量价值的敏感程度逐步增强,并在油价一定的情况下超过初始产油量和递减率变化的敏感程度。

    Abstract:

    The remaining economic recoverable reserves are the core assets of oil companies. Their scales and value reflect the development potential of the company,which directly affects the depreciation and profit of the company and value retaining and increment of oil and gas assets. Based on the calculation model of the remaining economic recoverable reserves and the reserve value,sensitivity of initial oil production,decline rate,oil price and operation cost under different oil prices on the remaining economic recoverable reserves and reserve value are determined quantitatively. The results show that the remaining economic recoverable reserves and reserve value are positively correlated with oil price and initial oil production,and negatively correlated with decline rate and operation cost. Under different oil prices,the remaining economic recoverable reserves and reserve value have different sensitivities to various factors. At high oil price,the main influencing factors are initial oil production and decline rate. With the declining of oil price,the influences of oil price and operation cost on the remaining economic recoverable reserves and reserve value are gradually enhanced,and even exceed those of the initial production and decline rate at a certain oil price.

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刘昌鸣.剩余经济可采储量及储量价值影响因素敏感程度分析[J].油气地质与采收率,2017,24(2):90~94

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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-03-28