基于马尔科夫-贝叶斯模拟算法的多地震属性沉积相建模方法——以苏里格气田苏10区块为例
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袁照威(1988—),男,山东曹县人,在读博士研究生,从事地球物理勘探及地质统计学方面的研究。联系电话:18810549542,Email: yzw880205yuan@126.com。

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国家科技重大专项“大型油气田及煤层气开发”(2016ZX05014-001)。


A method of sedimentary facies modeling through integration of multi-seismic attributes based on Markov-Bayes model:An example from Su10 area in the north of Sulige gas field
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    摘要:

    在钻井资料较少的气田早期评价阶段,仅以钻井数据建立的沉积相模型存在很大的不确定性,难以满足地质研究的精度要求。为此,在沉积相建模过程中引入多地震属性作为约束条件。首先在贝叶斯模型框架约束下建立先验概率分布,然后根据模拟点周围的钻井数据和地震数据将先验概率分布更新为后验概率分布,在更新过程中运用马尔科夫假设解决不同变量间交叉矩阵的不稳定问题,最终通过对模拟点的后验概率分布进行随机抽样,从而获取其沉积相类型。以苏里格气田北部苏10区块为研究对象,通过分析地震属性与沉积相的关系,优选出均方根振幅、平均瞬时频率、有效频带和衰减因子4种地震属性,针对在整合多变量时互协方差计算量大的问题,运用马尔科夫-贝叶斯模拟算法,对多地震属性进行融合,得到多变量融合概率场信息,进而建立沉积相模型。研究结果表明,模拟结果与人工编绘的沉积相分布规律的吻合率超过80%,通过交叉检验分析预测误差在1%以内。

    Abstract:

    During the early stage of evaluation of the gas field development with less well data,the established sedimentary facies model has great uncertainty only based on well data information,which is difficult to meet the accuracy requirements of geological research. Thus it is becoming more and more important to be constrained by the multi-seismic attributes for sedimentary facies modeling. Firstly under the model of Bayes,the local prior probability distributions was built,and then the probability was updated into the posterior distributions with the neighboring well data and seismic attributes data. During the updating,Markov assumption could be used to solve the problem of instability of cross matrix for different variables,and at last the sedimentary facies could be modeled through random sampling from posterior distributions of modeling points. Taking the example of the Su10 area in the north of Sulige gas field,the relationship between seismic attributes and sedimentary facies was analyzed firstly and four types of seismic attributes were chosen including RMS amplitude,average instantaneous frequency,effective bandwidth and attenuation. Considering the problem encountered in the computation of multi-variable cross-covariance,the fusion of multi-seismic attributes was calculated to obtain their fusion probability based on Markov-Bayes model,by which a sedimentary facies model could be built. The result demonstrates that simulation result keeps an over 80 percent agreement with a sedimentary facies model drawn in hand. The prediction error is considered to be within 1% through the analysis of cross-validation.

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袁照威,陈龙,高世臣,段正军.基于马尔科夫-贝叶斯模拟算法的多地震属性沉积相建模方法——以苏里格气田苏10区块为例[J].油气地质与采收率,2017,24(3):37~43

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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-03-29