Dongying depression of Paleogene period broadly develops continental facies with red bed deposition from the first member of the Kongdian formation to the forth member of the Shahejie formation. According to statistics on the reservoir geological characteristics and distribution rules of Boxing area, it can be found that the four functional elements of the formation and distribution of oil and gas reservoirs are hydrocarbon source rocks (S), reservoir conditions (R), migration condition (M), preservation condition (P). This paper classifies the effective indexes that have influenced on the four functional factors controlling probability of oil and gas distribution, the capability index model of function elements including the capability index of hydrocarbon source rock (Si), the capacity index of reservoir storage (Ri), the capacity index of migration (Mi), and preserving ability index (Pi). The results show that, Si is the normalized result of the expulsion intensity of hydrocarbon (qe); and Ri is the normalized result of effective storage thickness (H); and Mi is the normalized result of the fluid potential, sand ratio, and the migration efficiency of the fault; the Pi is the normalized result of the product of the displacement pressure and the thickness of cover. And, based on that, this paper uses four capability index models of function elements and quantitatively evaluates the control probability function of a single element, eventually, it comprises four functional elements on the temporal and spatial domain, and gives weight coefficient to different function elements by weighted average, and then a probability index model of effective accumulation (SRMP) is set up. Using the calculation results of this model tests, the distribution of reservoir that has been founded, and the coupling results accord well with the current exploration situation.