Water absorption profile prediction models have been established and layer optimized combination has been done to improve the recovery of Ⅱ and Ⅲ layer in lower sub member of the Es2 Formation of Pucheng oilfield. The water absorption profile prediction models contain different geological factors and the weight coefficient on the basis of stratigraphic information and well parameters,and by means of intelligent swarm calculation. The prediction models can predict the variation of different stratification conditions, and optimize water injection measurements to improve water displacement utilization degree, so as to enhance the development performance in ultra-high water cut period of Wen 51 reservoir. Since the application of this technique in December 2008, the comprehensive water cut of study area has reduced by 4.7% and oil production has a steady improvement in 5 years, with cumulative incremental oil of 1.2 ×104 t. The reservoir development performance has been significantly improved.